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By covering a number of risks, it can encourage entrepreneurship and the development of certain investments, such as those in new technologies Ahmad et al. Bellettini and Ceroni have analyzed the relationship between social security spending and economic growth based on 61 countries.

They found out that whenever there is a statistically significant association between social security spending and growth, it has a positive sign. In addition, the positive estimated coefficient of social security expenditure appears robust to various forms of wrong specifications and seems to be higher in relatively underdeveloped social security systems poor countries.

Recently, similar evidence is provided by Zhang X. Thus, even from a theoretical point of view, the relationship between social security spending and economic growth is not clearly negative. However, S. Huntington argued that periods of rapid growth could increase socio- political instability in the absence of a flawless social security system. This could trigger a deep social conflict that could harm economic activities.

An empirical study of the impact of social protection on economic growth, conducted by Arjona, Ladaique and Pearson estimate an equation of economic growth based on annual data from 21 OECD countries and covers the period , the theoretical approach being inspired by Bassanini et al. The results obtained by them show that if social spending increases from Estimates suggest that increasing active social spending from 0.

Economic growth is the main driver of prosperity in both poor and rich countries. There is no doubt that growth is essential — if not enough — for poverty reduction. However, the nature of growth — meaning the extent to which the poor benefit and participate in growth processes — is extremely important Wiggins and Higgins, Although it is tempting to consider, for the sake of clarity, that social spending is either fully active or fully passive, things are actually more complex.

Most social spending is not exclusively active or passive. They can be mainly active, with passive elements in their composition such as a labor market scheme that ensures income security and at the same time give to the beneficiaries the right to unemployment benefits ; they can be mainly passive, but also include certain active elements such as a money transfer system and the obligation to look for a job.

Because most of the social schemes fall between these two extremes — active and passive — any distinction between active and passive spending is somewhat arbitrary. They are generally intended to help the unemployed find and keep a paid job. They can take various forms: vocational training programs, job search assistance, reintegration services for disabled workers and wage subsidies. The author justifies his position by the fact that a more uniform distribution of income in developing countries will contribute to the early development of such economic resources of society as labor and capital, which, in the author’s opinion, will create the premises targets for higher economic growth in these countries.

The interactions between poverty, growth and inequality can be represented by a set of two-way links. Figure 1. The relationship between growth, poverty and inequality. Poverty reduction strategies have traditionally focused on economic growth as the main policy of state action. Namely, economic growth implies a higher average income of the population, which, in turn, has an impact on poverty reduction.

However, recent studies show that income distribution is a key factor in reducing poverty. In conclusion, faster growth usually leads to absolute improvements for all, including the poor, while greater equity implies a relative improvement for the poor. Indeed, the relationship between social security spending and growth is complicated and confusing.

As the discussion above explains, the effect of social security spending on growth is still an open question both theoretically and empirically.

Empirical evidence. Presentation of social protection expenses per capita: Romania vs. According to the data provided by Eurostat, an upward trend is observed for the entire analyzed period. Social protection systems and economic growth Figure 2. Evolution of social protection expenditures in Romania euro per capita 1.

In order to assess the impact of social spending, we also presented the evolution of the share of people exposed to the risk of poverty and social exclusion.

In Romania, the poverty rate varied significantly compared to , according to the chart below. Although the poverty rate decreased by 6. As a result, the decline in poverty between and was 9. Figure 3. People at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Therefore, we can say that as social spending increases, the number of people exposed to poverty and social exclusion decreases.

It is important to see Romania’s position compared to other states in Central and Eastern Europe in order to have an overview of the importance given to the social system. Naturally, there are major differences between states, starting with the size, population, type of taxation single rate or progressive taxation and the amount of taxation, as well as the amounts allocated to social protection.

Comparing the amounts allocated by the CEE states with the EU28 average, it is obvious that they are much lower than the European average. The Czech Republic holds the best position, allocating about half of the EU average. Romania occupies the last but one place, standing with about euros over the last ranked, Bulgaria, in According to the table below, the previously announced hypothesis that countries that allocate higher amounts to social protection have higher poverty risk reduction rates is confirmed.

We can see that the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland — the top 3 countries with the highest expenditures, also record the highest degree of poverty reduction for An exceptional case is Hungary, which although compared to has reduced its social spending, however managed to reduce the risk of poverty the most, the gap being Nor can we overlook the fact that by allocating an amount approximately equal to that of Poland, Hungary has reduced the risk almost twice.

Table 1. Analyzing the situation in Romania, we find that in the risk of poverty after social transfers decreased by 4. We must mention that, although Bulgaria allocates less funds to social protection compared to Romania, it has managed to further reduce the number of people at risk of poverty. This could mean better resource management. In , according to Eurostat, the Gini coefficient after social transfers is equal to European Union average Therefore, Romania is less egalitarian than the average at this level.

Its coefficient, among the CEE countries, is between that of Poland The comparative analysis of the Gini coefficient between the CEE states allows us to observe the level of reduction of income inequalities before and after social transfers. This highlights the positive effect of social transfers on the income of the population and on reducing the gaps between social classes. Figure 5. Reducing inequalities through transfers.

In order to establish its connection and relevance regarding social protection expenditures and income inequality in Romania, measured by the Gini coefficient, an econometric analysis was performed using simple linear regression.

Thus, it is observed that there is an impact of social transfers on socio-economic inequality, i. Figure 6. Source: Eurostat, own processing. Furthermore, a panel data model was built to track the effects on the poverty rate among five Central and Eastern European countries: Romania, Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. In this model, the poverty rate was the dependent variable, while the explanatory variables were selected GDP per capita expressed in current prices, income inequalities measured by the Gini coefficient and social protection expenditures.

In addition, the poverty rate from the previous period was also included as an independent variable, considering that poverty is transmitted inertia and that it has an impact on the current poverty conditions. The database used was Eurostat, covering period.

The econometric results were obtained using Eviews 8 program. An increase in average per capita income has led to a decrease in the poverty rate in the selected countries. Likewise, an important role is assigned to income inequalities, noting that at an increase of 1 p. It was also found that social protection expenditures do not have a negative impact on the poverty rate, but a positive one, even if below 0.

Here an explanation could be related to the inefficient intervention through social protection systems especially in Romania and Bulgaria , but also to the fact that in these economies GDP per capita increased in average, but the median income increased more slowly, that is translated into a greater share of individuals below the monetary poverty threshold.

Conclusions and recommendations One of the most debatable questions among decision-makers about the reduction of poverty is whether we need to worry about the distribution or we let that growth work.

Although there are powerful arguments, which support the theory that growth is good for the vulnerable people, it has been proved that growth achieved through redistribution is expected to deliver even better results. According to our analysis, in Romania the link between social transfer expenses as a percentage of GDP and the socio-economic inequalities measured by the Gini Coefficient is inversely proportional.

This means that higher social transfer will have a major impact on reducing inequalities and lower social transfers will generate greater economic disparities. In addition, during the period, we built a panel model among several Central and European Countries Romania, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland where it is observed that the poverty rate is low in GDP per capital, income inequality increases the poverty rate, while social benefits rather have no effect on the poverty rate.

While increasing inequality amplifies poverty, rising incomes reduces poverty. Furthermore, the elasticity of poverty against inequalities is almost three times higher than the elasticity of power compared to economic growth which could indicate that any insignificant changes in income distribution can lead to an important impact on poverty.

Poverty reduction cannot be achieved without long-term sustainable economic precondition such as: maintaining macroeconomic stability, improving the business environment and creating a favorable investment climate which will increase domestic and foreign direct investment.

However, the benefits of growth when it comes to poverty reduction will be increased if they are accompanied by policies which aimed a better distribution of income. Considering that many poor people are unemployed or they have limited access on the labor market, these policies should take into consideration ways to improve the employment opportunities.

In addition a better distribution could be achieved only through tax reforms and coordination of social policies that must target the vulnerable sectors of economy. This thing can be accomplished by increasing the transparency of any social programs making it easier for poor people to access the information.

In Romania, social outcomes have been significantly improved in the recent years. This has happened mostly because of the priority given to poor people who have better access to social programs and efforts which target better public spending on social programs for low- income beneficiaries.

It is essential to ensure the long-term financial sustainability of the social security scheme for public and private sector workers in order to be able to allocate more money to pro- poor social assistance programs resources with which to ensure the social assistance program to protect health and also to make sure that Romania would be able to be prepared to cope with expenditure pressures on the relatively rapid aging of the population in the coming years.

More attention should be paid to intergovernmental coordination in the design and implementation of social programs. Equally important in this regard is the strengthening of ongoing efforts to create a single register of beneficiaries of social assistance programs at different levels of government. This will not only facilitate the implementation of inter- and intra- governmental initiatives, but also will reduce administrative and service delivery costs, while facilitating the evolution of program and internal and social expenditure financed from public sector.

In addition, most existing social programs are not designed to address regional inequalities in human development. In this regard, funding formulas should make greater use of human development indicators to determine the distribution of allocations between different regional administrations. In conclusion, in order to achieve its central objective of reducing poverty and social exclusion, the Romanian Government should continue its efforts to develop an inclusive society.

Adema, W. Ahmad, E. Alesina, A. Alwang, J. Arjona, R. Bassanini, A. Does human capital matter for growth in OECD countries? Bellettini, G. Social security expenditure and economic growth: An empirical assessment, Research in Economics, Vol. Bourguignon, F. The Poverty-growth-inequality triangle, Working Paper, No.

Branko, M. Do more unequal countries redistribute more? Does the median voter hypothesis hold? Casamatta, G. Political sustainability and the design of social insurance, Journal of Public Economics, Vol. Cernat, M. Perspectives on poverty in Romania. The impact of media discourse on people receiving social assistance on the legislative process, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, Bucharest, December Easterly, W.

European Report on Development, Social protection for inclusive development. Green, D. Gwartney, J. Helpman, E. HLPE, Food security and climate change. Report 4, June. Social protection for food security. Hubbard, R. September, pp. Huntington, S. İmrohoroglu, A. A life cycle analysis of social security, Economic Theory, Vol. Joakim, P. Kim, B. Krugman, P. Increasing returns in a comparative advantage world, American Economic Review, Vol.

Mirrlees, J. The Review of Economic Studies. Sala-I-Martin, X. A positive theory of social security, Journal of Economic Growth, Vol. Smith, A. The wealth of nations, Publica, Bucharest. Tabellini, G. Todaro, M. Vanhoudt, P. Wiggins, S. Zhang, X. Public investment and regional inequality in rural China, Agricultural Economics, Vol.

The nCoV coronavirus epidemic began in the Chinese city of Wuhan, which spread across the country and later in a very short period of time in several states, being seen as a global contagion effect that causes a large concern. The first part of the case study highlights that the behavior of agents greatly impacts the decisions they will make and this can cause financial and economic imbalances.

The financial impact of coronavirus goes beyond the worst old scenarios, building the ideal framework for a possible economic crisis. Economic changes and their effects have also affected the stock markets. This is also analyzed in the first part of the case study and through the IT solution NetLogo we simulated the contagious economic effect that can be transmitted in the economy of a country that is built on the interactions between several economic agents, such as businesses, banks, institutions and even the government of a country.

Introduction Mankind is nowadays situated at one of its thousands of key points which have left their footprint within history either pandemics or wars, among other events resulting in mass deaths. This time, every grain of power on a global scale is focused on the occurrence of the novel coronavirus in Wuhan. Within one month from the occurrence of the first infection, the structure of the new strain has been discovered and named Wuhan or Coronavirus nCoV, after the city where it first made its mark.

By the way in which economic, political and legislative relations between countries and continents are conducted, they can be seen as a complex global network. Before analyzing the impact that COVID has generated in the Banking Ecosystem, I will present some information about the concept of Fintech, Fintech companies being an important link in this ecosystem.

Fintech companies have benefited from more flexible regulations worldwide in both emerging and mature countries as organizations have sought to improve financial inclusion and serve a higher digital economy. Taking into account recent events in the financial system such as the appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro and the dollar which has caused great difficulties to the economy, national and international companies, including people, or the phenomenon of “Brexit”, studying methods to identify early effects affects an entire system, by diminishing negative events, is very important.

The COVID pandemic is an event that has taken the global economy by surprise, which has created and continues to create great difficulties. Altreva Adaptive Modeler Applying the concepts of virtual smart living to complex dynamic systems, such as stock markets, offers exciting new business opportunities.

Models resulting from simplified models usually predict rational results that do not correspond to the actual behavior of the markets. However, by creating an agent-based market model, i. With the help of this software, agent- based financial market simulation models can be built, in order to predict the prices of shares traded on the real market or other securities, currencies, cryptocurrencies, which are traded in a specific market. The technology he uses is based on the theory of economy based on agents, the study of calculating economic processes modeled as dynamic systems of interaction with heterogeneous agents.

The adaptive model Altreva and other agent-based models are used to simulate financial markets to capture the complex dynamics of a wide variety of investors and traders with different strategies, different trading periods and different investment objectives. Agent- based, heterogeneous, and rationally delimited learning models have been shown to be able to explain the empirical features of financial markets better than traditional financial models that rely on representative rational agents.

The software creates an agent-based model for a specific stock, consisting of an agent population and a virtual marketplace. Agent-based modeling is based on simulating the actions and interactions of several people or organizations in order to analyze emerging effects on a system. An agent-based financial market model, for example, consists of a population of agents investors and a mechanism for regulating stock prices. Agent-based models have proven to be able to explain the behavior of financial markets better than traditional financial models.

Financial markets have been studied using analytical mathematics and econometric models, most often based on the fact that market participants are generally considered to be rational. Altreva Adaptive Modeler uses computational intelligence and is primarily designed to actively trade stocks or market indices, i.

The simulator works as follows: it is divided into 2 main areas of analysis, agent-based modeling and trading system. In short, the agent-based model receives quotes and produces price forecasts, and the trading system decides when it should give a new trading signal based on the user’s forecasts and trading preferences. The IT solution offers a modern simulation framework, frameworks on statistics of developments over time, being also highlighted the dynamic framework of financial markets.

Also with the help of this program you can do statistical simulations such as historical simulation or Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, it is a good stock market modeling and value at risk program Benefit at Risk, in English beneficial for any investor to know how to position themselves in the market.

Case study and discussion The beginning of was not a great one, affecting the above desired trends because another major trend appears as a result of the existing pandemic. The rapid geographical spread of coronavirus and high rates of contamination over , infections in about 80 countries by March 4, have spread fear worldwide and disrupted global economic activity.

From the perspectives of early warning and risk identification, risk quantification and analysis, as well as risk management, I propose the following recommendations, which include the analysis of the behavior of the panicked citizen and the cooperation of Romanian institutions. As the virus approached Romania, the situation became worrying, and citizens were already panicking.

Mankind is currently located in one of the thousands of key points that have left their mark on history either pandemics or wars, among other events that have resulted in mass deaths. This time, every gram of power on a global scale is focused on the emergence of the new coronavirus in Wuhan.

Again, tests were performed on hypotheses involving an influenza- related virus including the Spanish flu of , coronavirus SARS severe acute respiratory syndrome or MERS and avian influenza. Within a month of the first infection, the structure of the new strain was discovered and named Wuhan or Coronavirus nCoV, after the city where it left its mark. Aggressive human-to-human transmission has led to a large number of coronavirus infections that have killed more than tens of thousands of people in several countries.

According to official figures from the World Health Organization, there were 2, deaths out of a total of 81, confirmed cases worldwide. Most were registered in China 2, out of 78, Karuc et al.

The major potential impacts on Romanian society could be: public panic, lack of medical supplies and food, insufficient beds and medical staff. Confirmation of the coronavirus pandemic among the Romanian population could also have an impact on the functioning of economic units, such as banks. The initial spread of the virus in as many European countries as possible near Romania and the confirmation of the appearance of the coronavirus in Italy had already caused panic among the population.

Access to the Internet, social networks such as Facebook and international news makes it easier for panic to grow and for citizens to behave in chaos.

With the panic, the economic problems will become even greater in the short term. Emotionally, consumption can increase, but only artificially. This could also lead to a shortage of goods, which is based on popular perception of a certain danger. For example, due to the fear that the virus has been confirmed in Romania, people have started to buy a lot of food such as flour, pasta, water, oil and canned food to prepare with supplies.

Thus, a chaos has already been created that does nothing but amplify the panic even more. From an economic point of view, in the context of investors who fear that the new coronavirus epidemic will slow the economy, European and Asian stock markets have been on a downward trend.

The panic created among the citizens leads to as many purchases as possible regarding non-perishable food, hygiene and protective materials. People need to be aware that this exaggerated fear can lead to a lack of food and hygiene materials, and this is a potential danger to life, health and basic survival. The population must be rational in these moments regarding the choices and decisions they make. Most EU Member States have developed risk assessment methodologies, adopted in national legislation and already operational.

These developments are taking place in the context in which, since , in order to improve the capacity of Member States to respond to the identified risks through prevention, preparedness and response measures, the European Commission has initiated a process of creating a methodological framework for risk assessment to enable the development of common European strategies and policies, based on comparable results at EU level.

A common European framework aims at better management and distribution of resources, with the aim of effectively and efficiently preventing and managing the negative effects of disasters and other risks at EU level. Several epidemics and pandemics in recent centuries have originated in China. In , an influenza virus killed many people in China and other countries.

The Asian crisis of killed more than 1 million people. This was followed by SARS in and bird flu in An important measure for the prevention and control of the epidemic could be the analysis of possible risks and their monitoring.

Risk monitoring, combined with knowledge based on the analysis of larger amounts of data and certain information, combined with artificial intelligence and data science could be a factor that would contribute to improving citizens’ motivation and behavior. Due to the high rate of the spread of an epidemic, a small amount of data is used and little research is needed to make quick decisions so that the spread of the contagion is prevented. From the point of view of risk management, several parties need to be involved, as follows: medical resources, political departments, emergency departments, patient, coronavirus suspected patient, research institutions, citizen, media and international community.

You need to create a complex network of interactions so that the best decisions can be made. When it comes to a contagious disease, many people face panic. Another important player who could help increase citizens’ optimism is the government itself, or even the president. For example, it should be appreciated that the President of Romania talks to citizens through press conferences and conveys that the level of mobilization remains high, but presents this information in a calm tone and the information is documented and correct.

All the above aspects constitute the basic framework of risk management in such situations. Investors fear that the spread of coronavirus will destroy economic growth and government action may not be enough to stop the decline. As a solution in the financial-banking market, central banks in several countries, including the United Kingdom, have reduced interest rates.

In theory, this means reducing lending and encouraging spending to stimulate the economy. However, the situation is quite volatile and, in the long run, this investment may not be enough.

The model developed by Gai and Kapadia can simulate in NetLogo a network formed by the economic units of a country. In the above simulation, we considered that a country’s economy is built on the interactions between several economic agents, such as enterprises, banks, institutions and even the government of a country. All these agents are interconnected through the relations between them, but the central element of their connection is the bank.

It is the only institution that interacts or can create connections with any economic agent of a country. Analysis of the impact generated by COVID in banking institutions and possible economic effects The actor colored in red is the economic unit affected by the pandemic. We can encounter the following effects of COVID dismissal of employees, stopping interconnections with other economic units, stopping production, suspending banking and even lending, increasing unemployment, creating a speculative bubble in the prices of food or protective materials surgical masks, disinfectant.

In the simulated model we considered the actor affected by the pandemic as a bank, therefore we connected this actor with most of the economic units in the built network.

It is also taken into account that the size of these banks in terms of assets held is not very large, so the expected impact is not a major one as banks, unlike shadow banking, are regulated by the National Bank of Romania. The effect was the expected one, that of not influencing the whole network. But what would happen if the bank actor were one of the most important players on the Romanian banking market or if the effect would have been extended to two other banks? In the figure above it can be seen that three actors banks are affected by the existing pandemic and are connected with different economic units.

In the image above, after a few simulations you can see how the contagion effect is transmitted in the network. Several economic agents have been affected and solutions need to be introduced to avoid an economic crisis. Due to the contagion in the network, several companies suspend their activities, this also having an impact on banking institutions because the employees of those companies may have loans from banks.

By stopping the activities, the employees register a decrease of the income generated either by a technical unemployment, or by the suspension by the companies of the salary payments.

Thus, the banks had to quickly adopt a solution in order not to reach the situation in the figure above. Therefore, several discussions between the banks, the NBR and the Government of Romania decided as a temporary solution for customers to benefit from a debt moratorium.

It was formalized by a Decision of the Romanian Government, published in the Official Gazette on April 6, , called the Norm on Ordinance number However, this moratorium, although beneficial to customers, may have a negative effect on domestic credit risk estimation models.

From the stock market point of view, in order to investigate the impact that the pandemic had, we carried out an analysis of the evolution of the capital markets. In the following we will graphically present the evolution of these stock market indices. In addition, as it is not enough to analyze only the evolution of stock market indices, we also represented the degree of changes in their returns. Figure 4. Evolution of the BET index. Source: Authors computation in R Studio. The current economic context, similar to one in recession, underlines the importance of analyzing the evolution of the returns of stock indices and identifying spikes over the analyzed period.

The events of this period, the first half of , have completely reshaped the economic context, and banks are making efforts to further support the economy, manage financial resources sustainably and maintain a degree of stability.

The above graphs show stronger negative economic effects when there is a sharp decrease in the average values of the analyzed indices, than decreases recorded over a longer period of time. Thus, a sudden shock may outline a systemic event whose effect may not be immediately controlled.

This explains the fact that when decreases are recorded over a longer period of time, the system has time to adapt and identify solutions to maintain stability. As is already known, many countries have been severely affected by the COVID crisis19 and the identification of measures to combat it is still under analysis.

Large sectors of the economies of several countries have been suspended, outlining a systemic event with a visible impact on the capital market. The BET index, like an economy, follows a cycle as can be seen in Figure The impact of the pandemic is felt on the Romanian capital market. Thus, in March there was a sudden decrease in the stock market index in Romania. However, its value does not exceed the lowest stock market value recorded in the analyzed period, According to graph An interesting aspect that we can observe in the analysis of the FTSE China index, related to figure 6 is the fact that although the origin of the pandemic is in China, its impact on the stock market was not devastating.

Moreover, in December , there were more virulent events that affected China’s economy than the coronavirus. This shows that the severe measures taken easily, perhaps also due to the communist regime, helped more to maintain stability. On the other hand, it is known that China’s economic power is very high and the country is very well developed technologically and digitally.

Considered an engine of the European economy, Spain, Germany, Italy and France were severely affected. Their effects were propagated as a contagion effect at the level of the European Union, a fact observed in the evolution of the STOXX50 index. It can be seen that in the analyzed period, the lowest market value and the highest negative profitability is observed in March The contagion effect is observed not only among the population but also among the economies.

Capital markets around the world have been affected. The British economy has also been hit by the coronavirus crisis. At the end of March and April, there were strong shocks on the British stock market. Adaptive market behavior modeled in other adaptive modeler A didactic means and not only to model the forecast of some stocks, assets, markets is represented by the computer system Altreva Adaptive Modeler, being based on an innovative and unique technology, it creates market simulation models in which thousands of virtual traders apply their strategies, trading using real world market data to trade.

Agencies compete and adapt in this virtual environment. Agent-based modeling has been shown to be able to explain the behavior of financial markets better than traditional financial models. Next, I will build a speculative trading model based on the adaptive behavior of economic agents. This behavior is expressed through a feedback mechanism on changing the stock- bond ratios of agents, depending on the previous performance of their portfolios. The share price is set according to the supply demand for the asset derived from the agents’ risk levels.

Using the agent-based modeling methodology, I will show that agents, which act endogenously and adaptively, create a persistent price bubble. The price dynamics generated by the trading process do not reveal any singularity, however, the process is accompanied by an increase in aggregate risk which indicates an increase in the probability of an accident. We will consider a model of economic behavior based on agents. It is characterized by behavioral traits typical of exchange patterns, described by either a group behavior or an individual.

The ownership of group behavior describes the fact that agents have a common belief that it is advantageous to participate in market activity. The importance of the behavioral aspects of speculative markets has always been recognized, under different interpretations. It is hard to deny that the irrationality of market participants is a pervasive feature that causes price instability and critical events. Attempts to understand price changes in the stock markets lead to the introduction of agent-based models that mimic the behavioral patterns of different groups of traders.

Kim and Markowitz showed the destabilizing effect of constant portfolio insurers on price dynamics and proposed it as an explanation for the market crash. Levy and Solomon demonstrated in their research that there are rational and irrational traders in the analysis of multi-agent models, and the group of these agents will cause the price dynamics to go through a series of booms and imbalances.

A number of models of nonlinear differential equations have been proposed to describe the evolution of the population of different types of traders, their interactions, price dynamics and changes in the wealth of agents. The proposed model generates complex chaotic dynamics, with the agglomeration of yield volatility, queues in the distribution of returns and wealth, as well as long-term memory. Even if traders are restricted to rational utility maximizers, the price that will persistently grow will create so-called rational bubbles.

Thus, the significant deviation from the fundamental value is the generic property of speculative prices. The statistical properties of market portfolios are different from those of a single stock. Positive returns are certainly influenced by macroeconomic parameters, but the quantitative expression for dependence or deviations is unclear. Thus, for the next analysis, modeling based on agents that mimic real trading processes will be used.

The model is based on the following assumptions, described below. Dezsi et al. I will assume that this rebalancing and updating of portfolios completely determines the dynamics of the market as a whole. To be more specific, I describe the following conditions: a the market portfolio price is set by the agencies willing to rebalance the funds between their stock and a secure asset, in cash or bond; b on rebalancing, agents act only on the basis of the relationship between stock and bonds; c the agents change the proportions of their investments in an adaptive way to the changes of their portfolios.

To introduce the model, it is necessary to establish the number of agents that will enter the market that will trade shares of a single asset. Agents do not know the fundamental value of the asset, but expect the price to rise at moderate rates over long periods of time, and always prefer the value to rise rather than fall.

The decision to buy or sell the asset will determine the position in the market: short or long. If the agent identifies a growing market, it increases its ratio of shares to bonds by a fixed amount, while the other agent reduces its ratio.

The feedback reflects that when faced with a series of weak investments, the agent will reduce the share of capital in the portfolio, while if the investment grows better than expected, he will take a riskier position.

In addition to price charts, agent-based models provide detailed information on the distribution of wealth between agents. This information allows the study of the effects of market activity on the agent population. The two are some of the most important banking actors in the Romanian system, both in terms of assets and trading, lending or relations with other economic systems. In my opinion, cryptocurrencies are also an interesting topic to analyze and I think that in the future they will have a significant impact on the banking network.

An agent-based model is a computational model for simulating the actions and interactions of multiple agents to analyze the effects on a complex system as a whole and is a powerful tool in understanding markets and trading behavior. An agent-based financial market model consists of a population of agents investor representatives and a price discovery and clearing mechanism representing a virtual market. In terms of financial markets, agent-based models can successfully replicate time series features, such as fat-tailed distributions leptocurtures and the volatility cluster, for which standard financial models offer little explanation.

Conventionally, financial markets have been studied using analytical mathematics based on a generalization of market participants and other simplifications. In the figure below we have represented the evolution of the RBI portfolio for the period May – April 27, , simulating the model starting from March We assumed a population size of agents, with an equal initial distribution of wealth and a capital of start worth , units. The result of agent-based modeling is shown in the figure below.

The following figure shows how the population of agents evolves according to their age and wealth. The correlation coefficient is 0. Figure The evolution of the agent population simulated in Altreva Adaptive Modeler.

The behavior of financial markets, as observed in reality, cannot be fully described by such mathematical models. In reality, market prices are set by a wide variety of investors with different decision-making methods and different investment objectives. The model works as follows: The agent-based smart model cycle begins with receiving a new portfolio of offerings, so that agents can place a new order or remain inactive according to the trading strategy.

After all the agents have evaluated their trading strategy, the Virtual Market determines the clearing price, executes all executable orders and releases the price forecast for the next bar. After that, new agents can reproduce and be replaced by evolutionary operations, such as crossover and mutation, a process that is repeated for each interval bars.

The model’s trading rules use historical price data as input, either from the virtual market or the real market, and return an output consisting of a desired position, as a percentage of wealth, and a limit price for buying or selling.

Trading procedures are implemented by genetic programming technology. During the reproduction process, which is specific only to the smart agent-based model, new offspring agents are created from some of the best performing agents to replace some of the weakest agents.

To achieve this, at each bar, the highest yielding fitness reproduction agents are selected as parents, and the genomes trading rules of these parents’ pairs are then recombined by genetic crossover to create new genomes that are given the new successor agents.

These new agents replace the agents with the lowest replacement efficiency. Fitness functions are a measure of the return on investment of agents over a period of time, so the reproduction yield of reproductive capacity is calculated as a measure of short-term return of wealth and is the selection criterion for reproduction best agents , while fitness replacement efficiency is calculated as the average performance per bar and is the selection criterion for replacement worst agents.

Bitcoin modeling. In the figure above you can see a model based on agents related to the evolution and prediction of the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. The outputs resulting from the processing and simulation of the other indices mentioned above can be found in Appendix A. Taking into account the literature on the impact of high frequency trading on financial markets, the results showed that this algorithmic transaction led to increased liquidity, improved market efficiency, without affecting market integrity and lower incidence of market manipulation.

The results of this case study show that, in almost all cases, the smart agent-based model performed better, which could be interpreted as lower market efficiency, allowing stock market price predictions to manipulate the market. All these events can represent shocks that can affect both the banking network and the global economy.

Complex Adaptive Systems have properties necessary to be understood in order to quantify and propose methods of regulation and self-regulation at the level of financial markets that have an impact on banking networks.

It is also interesting how the emergence and evolution of cryptocurrencies impact the evolution of the financial market. The event caused huge losses, both human and material and financial. The economies of many countries have been troubled, with the pandemic of this virus being an extremely strong shock in the global economic network.

Therefore, another analysis is presented in the next research study, number four. We adapted the model proposed by Gai and Kapadia and performed an analysis in NetLogo to observe how the transmission of the contagion effects that appeared after the pandemic.

Banks are the binder of the national economy, from my point of view, and maintaining financial stability at this time is very important. The second part of this case study is the behavior of the capital market in several countries in the context of coronavirus. The results showed that this pandemic created significant shocks on the stock market in several countries, some registering the highest negative returns in the analyzed period.

Romanian banks support the country’s economy by applying extensive protection and support programs for companies and individuals affected by the COVID The measures aim to support the economy and jobs, as well as support for credit adjustment, along with a range of solutions to ensure fast and efficient remote banking assistance.

The outbreak of the COVID Coronavirus epidemic and its global spread since February have created immediate significant challenges for society and risks to the economic outlook. Although the long-term magnitude of the economic shock cannot yet be quantified, economic activity is likely to shrink.

In the following researches we want to investigate the potential effects that the COVID pandemic can generate if a wave 2 of pandemic aggression is generated in Romania. Arinaminpathy, N. Size and Complexity in Model Financial Systems. Babus, A. Bartholomew, P. Private and Public Policy, No. Cibernetica firmei. Copeland, L. Default probabilities of European sovereign debt: market-based estimates.

Applied Economics Letters, 8 5 , pp. Dezsi, D. In: Nguyen, N. Intelligent Information and Database Systems. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. Springer, Cham. The role of financial markets for economic growth. Gai, P. Contagion in financial networks, Working Paper No. Karuc, J.

Kaufman, G. The Independent Review, No. Nica, I. Conceptual dimensions regarding the financial contagion and the correlation with the stock market in Romania, Theoretical and Applied Economics, Vol. Perepelitsa, M. Asynchronous stochastic price pump, arXiv Source: Authors computation in Altreva Adaptive Modeler.

Figure A. Evolution of the Erste Bank Group index. Covid crisis: Fiscal, monetary and macro-financial policy responses. In essence, lockdown and social distancing measures are triggering losses in global production, supply, trades, investments, and employment.

This article, to counteract the economic losses and macroeconomic uncertainty, explores the policy evolution of macroeconomic effects during the COVID pandemic. It has communicated different policy responses addressing the potential economic damages in the G-7 countries and 24 emerging market economies EMEs.

The article also illustrates the lockdown and regulatory implications and dynamic economic interventions mandated by the governments, monetary authorities, and central banks.

The study demonstrates the potential impact of fiscal, monetary, and macro-financial policy measures on the economic losses caused by regulatory and quarantine measures. Monetary authorities and central banks have lowered the policy rates like repurchase agreement rate repo , reverse repo, cash reserve requirement CRR to ease the liquidity supplies to the economy.

Central banks also offered credit facilities to cater to the demand for loans and advances. The study finds that G-7 economies and emerging market economies have implemented a comprehensive fast-track fiscal, monetary, and macro-financial policy to counteract the pandemic’s negative economic consequences. The policy measures include the fiscal stimulus package, direct spending, loans, and credit facilities, refinancing schemes, swap agreement, discount loan window, tax cut on credit, short term loan extension, bridge finance, policy rate cuts, bond purchase, SMEs financing.

These policy measures, if implemented successfully, are predicted to minimize the impact of the crisis and to stabilize the economies. Introduction The world is now undergoing a wave of economic pathogens released by the crisis from COVID, severing the interdependent world economy. The virus outbreak emerged in Wuhan, China, in December of and persists globally now. The novel pandemic outbreak of coronavirus has been taking its toll on human lives and the economies.

The extensive spread has become catastrophic to the global economy, inflicting severe damage to the global production and supply chain.

The virus-containment measures have dismantled the economic activity across the globe. The quarantining measures necessary to contain the virus have triggered an economic downturn affecting global production and supply, international trade, FDI flows, international financial markets, and international tourism and travels.

To lower the transmission rate of COVID and to decrease the liability on healthcare systems, almost all governments have implemented a wide range of strict public healthcare and quarantine measures including school and factory closures, travel restrictions, and city lockdowns Atkeson, Consequently, the economies started experiencing a sharp downturn. The world’s largest economies G7 and China are among the ones that have been most affected by the Pandemic Baldwin and Weder di Mauro, However, the economic consequences of the pandemic will have varying impacts depending on several factors, containing the direct impacts of quarantine measures to limit the spread, the required duration of the lockdown measures, and the degree of intensity at which the direct economic effects amplify and persist.

There are three transmission measures for the pandemic that will hit the global economy hard. First, travel restrictions at the regional and national levels will restrict the flow of goods and services across the borders and within countries. Second, increased uncertainty will translate into reduced spending by households and small businesses. Third, sharp declines in global stock markets, if sustained, will hurt the real economy. Plunging markets stoke fear and uncertainty, reduce household wealth, and therefore erode consumer spending.

The discussion in this paper significantly contributes to the financial crisis literature Allen and Carletti, Jagannathan et al. Moreover, this paper contributes to the growing literature by exhibiting that non-financial factors and non-economic factors can initiate both a financial and economic crisis in unprecedented ways.

Related literature The literature on the economic impacts of the COVID pandemic, as is the recent phenomenon, is substantially growing. There remain only a few studies about the economic loss due to the massive-scale epidemic of contagious diseases to date: Schoenbaum, is an example of an initial analysis of the economic impact of influenza. Other studies like Meltzer and Cox, examine the potential macroeconomic impacts of the influenza pandemic in the US and evaluate several vaccine-based interventions.

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, a large body of work studied how credit supply shocks Mian and Sufi, ; ; Mian et al. Finally, this paper joins a rapidly growing body of work studying the impact of the COVID epidemic on the economy.

Eichenbaum et al. Given the span of the pandemic is just about four months, research on the economics of COVID is at an early stage and still emerging. An extensive set of papers has emerged and is still expanding on macroeconomic issues surrounding the COVID pandemic.

As the evidence of economic impacts keeps emerging, research think tanks and media outlets are in a race to publish commentaries, editorials, and analytical pieces. Baldwin and Weder di Mauro, complied with an ebook illustrating the impacts of general macro economy and policy, trade, supply chain, finance, banking, travel, and regional sensitivities.

Provided the aim of the article, it is worth reviewing them. Beck, focuses on finance and banking risks created by the pandemic and argues that the effect would depend on three factors — the extent of the pandemic’s economic effects globally, the fiscal and monetary policy reactions to the shocks, and regulatory reactions addressing possible bank fragility.

Mann, mentions the interlinkage between global commodity markets, financial markets, public sentiment, and the economy is likely to make the situation worse and challenging for policy responses. Other authors also expound that the COVID pandemic is both a demand shock and a supply shock — that are likely to slow down aggregate trade flows significantly and that manufacturing distress and supply-side contagion are imminent through international supply chain distortions.

Based on the experiences of modeling the economic effects of the influenza pandemic Wren Lewis, suggests that the COVID estimates reduction in economic growth, coming as a result of reduced labor supply, higher production cost, higher temporary inflation, and reduced social consumption.

While studying the adverse shock of the pandemic Fornaro and Martin, mention that pandemic as an adverse shock to the growth rate in productivity considering a standard New Keynesian representative-agent economy and endogenous technological change with sluggish traps. In contrast, the article focuses on new shocks to supply due to widespread lockdowns and social distancing measures. Faria e Castro, builds on studies different forms of fiscal policy in a calibrated New Keynesian model.

Later, they then consider the optimal Pigouvian policy to internalize the externalities. Alvarez et al. However, none of these papers focus on demand shortages or feature multiple sectors. Jorda et al. The pandemics are persistent, with large numbers of casualties. They also find evidence that pandemics lower the inflation-adjusted rate of interest. However, it is not clear if this is comparable to the events as the authors focus on the short- term effects of lockdowns that respond to the pandemic.

Baldwin and Tomiura, explain that the containment policies have directly and massively reduced the flow of labor to businesses. The result has been an abrupt and sharp reduction in the output of goods and services. Gormsen et al. Nikiforos, mention that the direct impact has both demand and supply implications.

As a large share of production has stopped or will stop, the output will decrease from the supply side. On the other hand, the uncertainty posed by the pandemic, the regulatory restrictions imposed by the authorities, and the drop in the level of economic activity globally will have an adverse impact on most components of aggregate demand.

To get an idea of the magnitude of pandemic effects, some preliminary Chinese data reflect that in the retail sales decreased by In comparison, investment and industrial production fell by and The economic effects became extreme as quarantine measures are taken, and the severity affected various sectors of the economy with travel bans, sporting event cancellations, the prohibition of mass gatherings Elliot, ; Horowit, International financial institutions, monetary authorities, and central banks are seeking to mitigate the immediate impact on the real economy through extraordinary fiscal, monetary, and macro-financial measures.

Petrochemistry of crater facies Tokapal kimberlite pipe, Bastar craton, central India and its orangeitic affinities. Project north of Paranatinga Fipke. Overview of highlights for period ending Sept. Krone Endora. Diamcor increases revenues for third consecutive quarter in fiscal Diamcor responds to continuous disclosure review. BC Securities Krone-Endora. Diamcor recovers Diamcor announces filing its third fiscal quarter results. Diamcor announces results of fourth quarter diamond sales.

Diamcor completes planned plant expansion at Krone-Endora at Venetia project. Mining right issued for Diamcor’s Krone-Endora at Venetia project. Martin Rapaport addresses synthetic diamonds. Zimbabwe’s diamond industry has come a long way in its quest for legitamacy. And it still has a ong way. Over , residents have been displaced due to renewed violence in the Katanga province of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Speculation only! Alrosa’s future plan. VP Igor Sobolev answers questions – Alrosa production for Where did production increase. Pledge reminder letters surface, Marange miners may face contempt. Investigating a new treatment – low pressure-high temperature is the latest development in diamond treatments. Colour enhancement. How Rio Tinto aims big guns at a diamond tycoon and his Brazilian rival. Beny Steinmetz. A synthetic called CVD.

Rio Tinto showcases Oculus Rift technology to global diamond industry. Virtual journey into Diavik mine. IT to connect across 70 De Beers locations. Mineral firm leaves Zimbabwe, neglects to hand over survey data. Canadian company no name stated. Mpofu’s shocking testimony reveals major diamond industry problems.

No minutes. Bribes and fraud case. Excess diamond inventory. Large volume of polished diamonds stuck in the middle of the pipeline manufacturers. Yuzanov advises Alrosa to stick with rough production diversification into cutting ill advised. The recent re-launch of CanadaMark hallmark by Dominion Diamond Corporation is designed to enhance the company’s status as Canada primary diamond mining company.

Argyle mine celebrates anniversary of landmark participation agreement. Grib diamonds for grabs. Spot auctions in Antwerp. Overview of management and background to the production and sales. Geology of the heavy rare earth element-rich Lofdal alkaline carbonatite complex, north west Namibia.

The kinetics of the reaction of majorite plus ferropericlase to ringwoodite: implications for mantle upwellings crossing the km discontinuity. Chemical composition, geochemical features and genesis of charoite and charoite rocks, Murun Complex. Reports Diavik and Ekati diamond mine fourth calendar quarter production. Dominion Diamond Corporation issues updated mine plans for the Ekati and Diavik diamond mines.

Dominion Diamond Corporation reports updated reserve and resource statements for the Ekati and Diavik diamond mines. Reports fiscal first quarter results. Dominion Diamond Corporation reports Fiscal second quarter results. Dominion Diamond Corporation reports Diavik diamond mine third quarter production.

Dominion Diamond Corporation increases interest in the Ekati diamond mine. Dominion Diamond Corporation provides financed security for the Ekati diamond mine. Dominion Diamond Corporation files developer’s assessment report for the Ekati diamond mine. Dominion Diamond reports third quarter fiscal sales and production results. Gannicott until mid feb. Reports fiscal third quarter results. The regional relationships of the different gravel deposits in the Middle Orange region, northern Cape, South Africa.

What coupled cerium and neodynium isotopes tell us about the deep source of oceanic carbonatites. Paleoproterozoic formation age for the Siberian cratonic mantle: Hf and Nd isotope dat a on refractory peridotite xenoliths from the Udachnaya kimberlite. High water contents in the Siberian cratonic mantle linked to metasomatism: an FTOR study of Udachnaya peridotite xenoliths. Doucet, L. High water contents in the Siberian cratonic mantle linked to metasomatism: an FTIR study of Udachnaya peridotite xenoliths.

Downes, P. Stable H-C-O isotope and trace element geochemistry of the Cummins Range carbonatite complex, Kimberley region Western Australia: implications for hydrothermal REE mineralization, carbonatite evolution and mantle source regions. Stable H-C-O isotope and trace element geochemistry of the Cummins Range carbonatite complex, Kimberley region western Australia: implications for hydrothermal REE mineralization, carbonatite evolution and mantle source regions.

Debmar Pacific makes port of call in Cape Town. Ship being repaired and outfitted for another 30 month stint at sea. Crystallography’s journey to the deep Earth. Improved methods for studing minerals at extreme pressures and temperatures. Dunnedin to acquire the advanced stage Kahuna diamond project. Dunnedin signs definitive agreement on Kahuna diamond project.

Poikilenko , Held Sept. Eagle Plains announces Stornoway participation in Orchid property agreement. North Arrow Pikoo. Datasets available to download – mentions xenoliths not specific to diamonds. Eiler, J. Amphibole genesis in pyroxenites from the Beni Bousera peridotite massif Rif, Morocco : evidence for two different metasomatic episodes.

El Goresy, A. A new natural, super-hard, transparent polymorph of carbon from the Popigai impact crater, Russia. Geochemistry and petrology of the Early Miocene lamproites and related volcanic rocks in the Thrace basin, NW Anatolia. Chinese rescue averts liquidation of Antwerp diamond benk – but will trigger regulatory problems. EGL synthetic discovery triggers ethical and legal quagmire. Diamond Intelligence Brief courtesy of Chaim , Vol 29, no. The world diamond council: all about putsch within the family that was averted – and the unity that will be restored.

Diamond Intelligence Brief courtesy of Chaim , Vol. GIA: too big to fail. Economic impact represents concentration risk to industry. Turnover time for certificates. Evolution of diamond resorption morphology from the mantle source to the emplacement of kimberlite at the surface: review of experimental data. Linking together the dissolution and reaction features of kimberlite hosted diamond and Fe-Ti oxides with magmatic fluid and its role in kimberlite emplacement.

Fernandes, A. Appointment of Liqhobong diamond mine chief project officer. Glenn Black. Highlights – Liqhobong, sales, pilot plant, BK Financing agreements entered into for the Liqhobong diamond mine. Disposal process in respect of the company’s Botswana operations. Final results for year ended June Annual report. Resolution of geochemical and lithostratigraphic complexity: a workflow for application of portable X-ray fluorescence to mineral exploration.

Foster, D. A sharp cratonic lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary beneath the American Midwest and its relation to mantle flow. Fournier, D. Frets, E. The Beni Boussera peridotite Rif belt, Morocco : an oblique slip low angle shear zone thinning the subcontinental mantle lithosphere. Diamond formation by carbon saturation in C-O-H fluids during cold subduction of oceanic lithosphere.

Friedman, S. Craton vs rift uppermost mantle contributions to magnetic anomalies in the United States interior. The diamond growing greenhouses. Subducted slabs stagnant above, penetrating through, and trapped below the km discontinuity.

Composite carbonate and silicate multiphase solid inclusions in metamorphic garnet from ultrahigh-P eclogite in the Dabie orogen. Diamonds and its grade in different petrochemical types of kimberlites based on Russian diamond deposits.

The provenance of northern Kalahari Basin sediments and growth history of the southern Congo Craton reconstructed by U-Pb ages of zircons from recent river sands. Physical controls on sand and composition and relative durability of detrital minerals during ultra-long distance littoral and aeolian transport Namibia and southern Angola.

Gaubas, E. Lateral scan profiles of the recombination parameters correlated with distribution of grown-in impurities in HPHT diamond. Letseng and Ghaghoo. Letseng recovers an axceptional carat diamond. Opening of the Ghaghoo mine. Sale of carat Letseng diamond. Interim management statement – Letseng, Ghaghoo. GGL Resources Corp. Target Area Database. Phase relations and melting of carbonated peridotite between 10 and 20 Gpa: a proxy for alkali and CO2 rich silicate melts in the deep mantle.

Melting of Phase D in the lower mantle and implications for recycling and storage of H2O in the deep mantle. Precambrian crustal evolution in the Great Falls Tectonic Zone: insights from xenoliths from the Montana alkali province.

Giuliani, A. Petrogenesis of mantle polymict breccias: insights into mantle processes coeval with kimberlite magmatism. Giuliani, G. Glazyrin, K. Magnesium silicate perovskite and effect of iron oxidation state on its bulk sound velocity at the conditions of the lower mantle. Glorie, S. Formation of the Kokchetav subduction collision zone – northern Kazakhstan : insights from zircon U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotope systematics.

First African diamonds discovered in Algeria by the ancient Arabo-Berbers: history and insight into the source rocks.

Origin of high pressure disordered metastable phases Lonsdaleite and incipiently amorphized quartz in metamorphic rocks: geodynamic shock or crystal-scale overpressure? In: Ultrahigh Pressure Metamorphism: 25 years after discovery of coesite and diamond. Dobrzhinetskaya, L. Golden Saint Resources sponsors local mining bid in Sierra Leone. Tongo and Baja and exploration. Golden Saint appoint specia list for Sierra Leone operations. Wardell Armstrong Int.

Golden Saint Resources to shortly start Baja bulk sampling programme. Concerns for capital during these market conditions. Funding arranged for the cost of the DMS. Purchase of diamond washing plant in the Zimmi area. Money that needs laundering. The arrest of a woman accused of hiding 10, diamonds inside her body. Weight of diamonds 11 ozs If gold would weigh 20 lbs. Gordeev, E. Goryainov, S.

Geological characteristics of diamond bearing terrigenous rocks in the north-east borderland of the East European platform. Green, D. Experimental study of the influence of water on melting and phase assemblages in the upper mantle.

Emplacement ages and sources of kimberlites and related rocks in southern Africa: U-Pb ages and Sr-Nd isotopes of groundmass perovskite. Renewed interest in diamond exploration prompts reevaluation of Grizzley’s dormant Alberta diamond project; company stakes additional claims in Buffalo Head Hills.

Groulier, P. The use of statistical methods applied to multi-element geochemistry for phase discrimination in kimberlites – examples from the Star and Whiskey kimberlites.

Classification of whole rock geochemistry based on statistical treatment of whole rock geochemical analyses and portable XRF analyses at the Attawapiskat kimberlite field of Ontario. A synthethis and new perspective on the petrogenesis of kamafugites from West Qinling, China, in a global context. Carbonado: physical and chemical properties, a critical evaluation of proposed origins, and a revised genetic model. Cosmic carbonado: an origin in white dwarf stars, carbon rich exoplanets, and by late heavy bombardment.

Diamond exploration in NW Liberia: discovery of a new kimberlite pipe and the recognition of a diagnostic botanical indicator. Evaluation of portable X-ray fluorescence pXRF in exploration and mining: Phase 1, control reference materials. Relationships between oxygen fugacity and metasomatism in the Kaapvaal subcratonic mantle, represented by garnet peridotite xenoliths in the Wesselton kimberlite, South Africa.

Utilization of olivine macrocryst grain size and abundance dat a as a proxy for diamond size and grade in pyroclastic deposits of the Orion South kimberlite, Fort a la Corne, Saskatchewan, Canada. How far can the influence of a local marine Diamondiferous signature be traced through an aeolian depositional system? Rediscovering its swagger. A look at how Canada’s minerals industry can adapt in the face of uncertainty. The origin of high hydrogen content in kimberlitic olivine: evidence from hydroxyl zonation in olivine from kimberlites and mantle xenoliths.

Cattle, diamonds and institutions: main drivers of Botswana’s economic development, to present. Approval from Indian government – Bunder. Locals earned little from Rio Tinto’s diamond project. Lukas lundin talks diamonds: an exclusive interview with the mining mogul. Chairman of Lucara Karowe. Canada’s mini staking rush. The origin of Laurentia:Rae Craton as the backstop for Proto-Laurentian amalgamation by slab suction.

The Namuskluft and Dreigratberg sections in southern Namibia Kalahari Craton, Gariep Belt : a geological history of Neoproterozoic rifting and recycling of cratonic crust during the dispersal of Rodinia until the amalgamation of Gondwana. The lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary and the tectonic and magmatic history of the northwestern United States. Howarth, G.

The secondary origin of diamonds: multi-modal radiation tomography of Diamondiferous mantle eclogites. Huang, J-X. Huang, Q.

Diamond precipitation from ascending reduced fluids in the Kaapvaal lithosphere: thermodynamic constraints. Materials stewardship toolkit – maximizing value themes area 1 systems perspective life cycle 2 building relationships value chain 3 understanding materials valuable and environmental risks 4 sharing dat a public dat a and information. Yehuda Diamond Corporation produces clarity enhanced diamonds. Process renders inclusions invisible.

Old fashioned social relations: a better return on investment? Personal approach still works. Lets meet lets talk. Threats and more threats: empathizing with Robert L.

Time of the year for reflection, introspections. Namibia has extended negotiations on new diamond sales agreement with De Beers’ parent Anglo to June Baron regrets downfall of “doyens” of Australian diamond business. Rio Tinto hands over diamonds to Smithsonian for research and display.

De Beers awards contract for customized diamond exploration ship. Kleven Norwegian shipbuilder. De Beers the world’s leading diamond company discusses its move to Gabarone and its mission to build Botswana into a global diamond hub. Gem Diamonds the owner of the highest average dollar-per-carat kimberlite diamond mine in the world continues to defy expectations with its exceptionally large and high-value stones from Botswan and Lesotho.

Diamond Corp is burying underneath a historic open-pit diamond mine in South Africa to build a new underground mine with significantly higher grade. Firestone Diamonds is close to realizing a high-grade, 15 year diamond operation in Lesotho with potential upside for high-value large stones. Spatial variability of volcanic features in early stage rift settings: the case of the Tanzania divergence, East African rift system. Intricate heterogeneous structures of the top km of the Earth’s inner core inferred from global array data.

Frequency dependence of inner core attentuation and its implication. Morfoliga, anatomia interna, composicao quimica e espectroscopia optica de absorcao de cristais de zircao kimberlitico do campo diamantifero de Juina, MT. Determination of sampling configuration for near shore Diamondiferous gravel occurrence using geostatistical methods.

Mining area no. Januszczak, N. A multidisciplinary approach to the Attwapiskat kimberlite field, Canada: accelerating the discovery-to-production pipeline. Running the numbers: how many lab-grown diamonds are there? Jewellery Export Promotion Council provided an in-depth study.

Jelsma, H. Radiogenic isotope constraints on lithospheric assimilation by sublithospheric melts in the generation of southern African kimberlite megacrysts: a comparsion of on and off craton megacryst suites. Jones, A. The electrical resistivity of Canada’s lithosphere and correlation with other parameters: contributions from lithoprobe and other programmes. Growth condition of super-deep diamonds inferred from carbon isotopic compositions and chemical compositions of nano-inclusions.

Kamenetsky, V. Chemical abrasion of zircon and ilmenite megacrysts in the Monastery kimberlite: implications for the composition of kimberlite melts. Towards a new model for kimberlite petrogenesis: evidence from unaltered kimberlites and mantle minerals. New Post spinel orthorhombic mineral phases and other new orthorhombic minerals as lower mantle inclusions in diamonds. Carbonatitic inclusions in deep mantle diamond from Juina, Brazil: new minerals in the carbonate-halide association.

Karelian exploration claim reservations granted. Kuuusamo area. Karelian granted three claim reservations. Kuupio-Kaavi region. Lapland diamond exploration claim reservations granted. Karelian extends agreement with Rio Tinto. Diamond exploration claim reservations granted. Kuhmo and Kuopio.

Karfunkel, J. Kargin, A. Magnesium silicate perovskite coexisting with ring woodite in harzburgite stagnated at the lowermost mantle transition zone. Evolution of silicocrbonatite parental magmas to form the Phalaborwa igneous complex: a complex history of melting of multiple mantle sources, magma mingling, differentiation and magmatic exsolution. Kendrick, J. Kennady Diamonds announces summer diamond recovery results from Kelvin kimberlite average 4.

Kennady provides Kennady North project update. Bob Camp and Kelvin Camp. Faraday kimberlite Dyke kimberlite and MZ kimberlite. Kennady Diamonds grants incentive stock options.

Kennady Diamonds updates Kelvin kimberlite drilling. Kennady Diamonds advances diamond project. Kennady Diamonds advances Kelvin-Faraday kimberlite drilling. Kennady Diamonds announces successful completion of Kennady North drill program. Kennady Diamonds commences Kennady North summer drill program.

Kennady Diamonds announces Faraday diamonds grade of 5. Kennady Diamonds updates Kelvin drilling meters of kimberlite intersected in vertical hole at Kelvin north lobe.

Kennady Diamonds plans extended Kennady North drill progam. Kennady Diamonds announces Kelvin diamond recovery results. Total sample grade 2. Kennady Diamonds increases Kelvin-Faraday tonnage estimate to million tonnes. Kennady diamonds updates Kelvin kimberlite drilling. Kennady Diamonds resumes drilling at Kelvin kimberlite.

Lithospheric structure of an Archean craton and adjacent mobile belt revealed from 2-D and 3-D inversion of magnetotelluric data: example from southern Congo craton in northern Namibia. Mountain Province Diamonds Inc.

Permit allows for continued development of Gahcho Kue. Coup talk as parliament is suspended in Lesotho. Gem Diamond’s operation should not be any impact on Letseng. Dominion Diamond Corporation: a positive second quarter for Ekati on grade and prices, good results from mine management. Lucara Diamond Corporation. Upgrading to outperform following sparkling exceptional stone tender.

Conclusion of pricing negotiations for fancy yellow production. Tiffany Laurelton Diamonds Inc Ellendale mine production. Update on Botswana joint venture. Tilwane Services. Trace element mass balance in hydrous adiabatic mantle melting: the hydrous adiabatic mantle melting simulator version 1 HAMMS1.

Kinzie, C. Nanodiamond rich layer across three continents consistent with major cosmic impact at 12, Cal BP. Estimation of the effective elastic thickness of the lithosphere using inverse spectral methods: the state of the art.

Geochemical features of radioactive elements in ultramafic-alkaline rocks example – largest in the globe Guli complex.

Conditions of accumulation of radioactive metals in the process of differentiation of ultrabasic alkaline-carbonatite rock associations. Turns out the world’s oldest diamonds are just polishing compound contamination Jack Hills region. Koreshkova, M. Zircon trace element characteristics and ages in granulite xenoliths: a key to understanding the age and origin of the lower crust, Arkhangelsk kimberlite province, Russia. Korikovsky, S.

The age of the protolith of metamorphic rocks in the southeastern Lapland granulite belt, southern Kola Peninsula: correlation with the Belomorian mobile belt in the context of the problem of Archean eclogites. High Nb rutile from upper mantle eclogite xenoliths of the diamond bearing kimberlite pipe, Catoca Angola. First dat a on the Diamondiferous mantle of the Kasai Shield, Congo Craton from diamond mineral inclusions. Nature and evolution of the lithospheric mantle beneath the Hoggar Swell Algeria : a record from mantle xenoliths.

Variability in diamond population characteristics across the size range 0. Fe-Ti oxides in kimberlites: implications for kimberlites from the Ekati diamond mine, Northwest Territories. Evaluation of garnet discrimination diagrams using geochemical dat a of garnets from various host rocks.

 
 

[Ectap Autumn | PDF | Social Protection | Economic Growth

 
 

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Assessing the impact of social security can be done at the social level: its’ positive or negative contributions on social progress, or at the economic level: the impact of social protection on economic growth. A method windoes synthesis is the analysis of socio-economic impact. A strategic direction is the one who highlights the positive consequences but without ignoring the others. Beyond the issues related to the financial sustainability of social protection, magi issue regarding reconciling redistribution with economic competitiveness is at dowjload center of the current questions of the evolution of social security programs.

Do the costs and methods of financing social systems cause problems of competitiveness or low economic growth? Especially in times of crisis, social protection is considered from two points of view: as an absorber of shocks caused by the winows and as a potential buffer for economic recovery. Before the scientific considerations of the effects of social security programs on windows update 1709 download manuella mayi economy, a general presentation of updatf socio-economic developments is needed.

Several developments highlight the global social and economic consequences of social assurance. In doctrine terms, social security is increasingly conceptualized and supported not only as a tool to face crises but, more fundamentally, as a tool for social investment in increasing people’s inclusion and well-being. Among the main achievements of social security is the reduction of extreme poverty, with the perspective of a possible eradication, being one of the most important positive socio- economic consequences of social protection.

Following odwnload trends, the assertion of the middle class in the world is one of the main results and challenges of social security. With their relative erosion in the West and their expansion, maybe mayii than expected, in emerging countries, the middle classes have been supported by social security and continue to hope for new support. In the context of these global developments, we need to consider the outcome and socio- economic impact of social security. In this case, measuring the impact of social security cannot be done exclusively through the financial channel that influences the macroeconomic balance sheet.

Windows update 1709 download manuella mayi are various benefits offered by social security, more or less favorable to growth, competitiveness and windosw.

The importance of public spending, especially in the social mayj program, is reflected through the fact that social protection windows update 1709 download manuella mayi consists of больше информации payments, insurance and pensions, aktivasi win 10 kuyhaa the services and social aids Adema et al. However, the effects of social protection spending of governments on long-term economic growth are unclear, with two opposing views.

On the one hand, the benefits of these programs may discourage people to work. Because of the decrease in the volume of workforce provided in the economy, the level of production and, in certain circumstances, the level of capital investment and therefore, economic growth may decrease.

On the other hand, social protection spending can make a positive contribution to economic growth, as individuals are insured against disease and the risk of unemployment and become more windows update 1709 download manuella mayi and motivated to work Arjona et al. These two opposed suggestions keep the doors open regarding the debate on whether social protection is an expense or an investment.

Opponents of this approach mention the limits of social security: discouraging work, splitting generations, budget deficits. The supporters emphasize its performance: increasing life expectancy, reducing inequality, improving population health, cushioning the effects of economic crises.

In reality, beneficiaries may not qualify due to poor windows update 1709 download manuella mayi, the jobs may not be where the beneficiaries are or the infrastructure may not allow windows update 1709 download manuella mayi beneficiary 11709 get where the job is. However, it seems that this debate is cyclical and always further research could bring important contribution to an approach or another. Our paper primarily examines how social protection systems address certain societal issues in order to contribute to the general well-being and presents the main functions of social protection schemes.

Secondly, an important part of the paper wijdows the analysis of the relation between social protection systems по этой ссылке economic growth, as it is treated in the literature. Third, we want to emphasize — by using a panel data model —, the impact of between windows update 1709 download manuella mayi independent variables, as social protection expenditures, economic growth and dowload inequality towards poverty rate, selected as dependent variable.

Social protection. Theoretical approach There are many definitions of social ipdate. The UK Institute for Development Studies proposed a definition in which it identified windows update 1709 download manuella mayi target groups — poor, vulnerable, and marginalized — with distinct social protection needs HLPE, Social protection consists mainly of social manuflla and social assistance programs.

Social insurances include support programs for the elderly and those who downloda temporarily out of the labor market. Social assistance programs target poor, vulnerable, cownload disadvantaged groups to improve their standard of living. It was conceived as a political response to risk, a human right and an agenda for building livelihoods. However, social protection is generally described as a set of public and private mechanisms that protect and prevent individuals and households from suffering from the severe consequences of shocks and stress.

Almost any public intervention could be considered, more or less, a part winfows the social protection system. According to the European Report on Developmentsocial protection is a specific set of public actions that target the vulnerability of the population through social security, providing protection against risks; through social assistance, providing support to the poor and through social inclusion efforts that increase the capacity of marginalized people to have access to insurance and social assistance.

Vulnerability is wjndows central concept in the World Bank’s definition Vulnerability: A View from Different Disciplines,but it is also a wibdows issue in other definitions found in the literature.

As defined by Alwang et al. Social protection systems and economic growth 9. The social protection system can be considered as a tool of the state that helps people maji achieve their most important projects, such as the chance to receive the education that will allow them to find a job, then to find that job; the possibility of starting a family and associating family life with participation in the labor market and society in general; economic security in case of unemployment or illness; the existence of retirement at the right time; finally, the possibility of receiving social wjndows and the necessary care when physical abilities decrease.

The relationship between equity and economic growth. Theoretical approaches and empirical evidence If we talk about economic manueola or growth, economists usually include more than a simple increase in real GDP. Determining in a more broad way the growth of incomes of the population of the country as a whole, including windows update 1709 download manuella mayi assessment of the well-being of society, become central concepts in measuring the level of economic development.

Poverty reduction, the reduction of social polarization in society, and the achievement of social justice are very closely and complexly linked to economic development, but these issues are often excluded from discussions on economic growth issues. Thus, the development of a social protection system that prevents or mitigates the download file iso win 10 1909 – download file iso win 10 1909 of negative shocks on individuals’ well-being should be considered a key objective of improving society’s well-being.

There is a close relationship between economic growth and social progress, because economic growth is the basis of social windows update 1709 download manuella mayi, having a direct impact on the development of human society by updare the forces of production. In any society, economic growth multiplies the material elements and creates conditions for society’s social development.

Beginning in the last quarter of the eighteenth century, A. Smith formulated, though not directly, the principle that the continuous accumulation of wealth is the most important element of the development of society, its main driving force and a necessary condition for social development. Such an approach shows that the goal windows update 1709 download manuella mayi economic growth is not the dwnload achievement itself, but ultimately, society.

This is specifically reflected in creating conditions for human development. Helpman names three channels through which inequality within the country affects economic growth Helpman, First, inequality accelerates growth, because the tendency to save on profits is higher than on wages. Consequently, the redistribution of income from wages from the poor in favor of profit to the rich increases total savings and thus accelerates growth. Iwndows, inequality inhibits growth, because the poor, due to capital market restrictions, have more limited access to credit.

Significant inequality, from the point of view of the property, reduces aggregate investment because the poor cannot participate in profitable investment projects. Third, inequality slows economic growth because the average voter prefers redistribution of income because, as a rule, the average income is below average. At the same time, redistribution is made from taxes, with a substantial distorting impact.

Therefore, a high tax economy will grow more slowly. Also, inequality has a negative impact on growth through the windoss access of the poor to education and, as a result, the declining quality of human capital, as well as the inability to make responsible policy decisions in polarized societies Krugman, The downloa of social protection on economic growth has divided theorists.

Overall, the conclusions that can be drawn from these windows update 1709 download manuella mayi do not allow us to form a clear opinion on this issue. A first thesis, initiated by Mirrlees as part of a reflection on optimal taxation, highlights a negative effect of social protection on economic growth. Social doqnload could reduce labor supply and, therefore, the labor resources on which economic downpoad is based, as beneficiaries are no longer stimulated to look windows update 1709 download manuella mayi a job.

In addition, these benefits are offset by the introduction of a tax mxnuella that can slow down savings and, respectively, investment — the source of economic growth. Other theorists have the same opinion, such as VanhoudtGwartney, Lawson and HolcombeAtkinsonMilanovicTabelliniCassamatta et al.

On the other hand, social protection spending will make a positive contribution to economic growth, as individuals are insured against disease and the risk of unemployment and become more productive and motivated to work Arjona et al. These opposed opinions still provoke debates as to whether social dowbload is an investment upfate multiple benefits or a waste of public money with negative effects on employment, economic growth, human capital development, etc.

There are various продолжить чтение regarding these negative conceptions of social protection. First, by avoiding the marginalization of the poorest and their sustainable exit from the productive system, social protection strengthens the potential for growth.

Second, limiting social tensions creates a favorable climate cownload political and economic decision- making, which can improve prospects for sustainable development Sala-i-Martin, Finally, wiindows mechanisms are inefficient in certain situations, in particular the insurance against job loss and income, in this case social protection plays an important role. By covering a number of risks, it can encourage entrepreneurship and the development of certain investments, such as those in new technologies Ahmad et manuellq.

Bellettini and Ceroni have analyzed the relationship between social security spending and economic growth based on 61 countries.

They found out that updste there is a statistically significant association between social security spending and growth, it has a windows update 1709 download manuella mayi sign. Iwndows addition, widnows positive estimated coefficient of social security expenditure appears robust to various forms of mzyi specifications and seems to be higher in relatively underdeveloped social security systems poor countries.

Recently, similar evidence is provided by Zhang X. Thus, even from a dlwnload point of view, the relationship between social security spending and economic growth is not clearly negative.